One of the best aspects of legalized sports betting is the fact that so many sportsbooks have entered the market. Competition in the space has caused sportsbooks to come up with a variety of new and innovative betting options.
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When online betting first started buzzing 20 years ago, bettors were happy to bet on spreads, moneylines, and totals at the click of a mouse. Today, every sportsbook is competing to acquire and retain bettors by offering more combinations, of more lines, across more leagues.
It could be argued that, in the last few years, no one bet type has been proliferated quite as quickly and aggressively as player props. Betting player props is seemingly everywhere. And, because there are so many markets offered for every single player (sometimes 5+ per player, including second and third string players), bettors have an incredible opportunity do incorporate player prop research into your strategy to find edge and make money in ways that wouldn't have been possible in past years.
In what follows, we'll detail some simple ways to find, analyze, and hopefully, win, player props.
How To Have Success Betting Player PropsLet's start with why you should bet player props in the first place. Two good reasons: (1) There's more opportunity to find an edge and (2) there's much more flexibility to bet on niche outcomes with fewer relevant variables to assess.
At some point in time, player props and gamelines (spread, moneyline, totals) will be equally competitive. But, that's not the case today. We are firmly in the golden age of player props. Oddsmakers pay huge attention to what's happening with the gamelines like the point spread and totals, but don't spend nearly as much time monitoring what's happening with player props. This is true for two reasons: (1) there are simply too many player props for the sportsbooks to become expert on and (2) there is less action, and therefore less exposure for the sportsbooks to mitigate as compared to the heavy action gamelines.
Still, because there is less action on player props markets, the markets are by definition 'less efficient.' Meanwhile, there is so much action on gamelines, the perfect price will have been pretty well discovered before you are able to place your bet.
Long story short, there is more edge to be found in player prop markets.
With player prop research, the world is your oyster. If you can dream up a particular bet type, it likely exists on one or more of the major sportsbooks. This flexibility allows you to really study up on an individual player and become an expert with respect to predicting performances in certain aspects of their game like passing completions, or rushing attempts, or steals, or three pointers made.
Moreover, betting on player props is significantly less complicated than betting on a gameline. The reality is, while betting on a team to cover the spread might seem simple, it is actually an incredibly complex wager. Accurately predicting a team to cover the spread requires accurately predicting full-team offensive versus defensive performances, game scripts, key player usage rates, and myriad other variables. At their core, gamelines are predictions about every player on one team matching up against every other player on a second team.
With individual player props, like a wager on offensive rebounds, the universe of variables is significantly less complex. You might want to better understand a player's historic performance on the offensive glass and the strength of the opponent's defensive rebounding, but even if you only considered these two variables, you'd be significantly more informed about the particular prop than you might ever be about a gameline. This relative simplicity should help you find an edge.
Being a smart prop bettor takes time, attention to detail, and true understanding of the markets. We've laid out seven ways to start gaining an edge below.
There's a lot of work that goes into finding mispriced player props but that's exactly what Outlier can help you with. Our Prop Finder tool automatically aggregates the entire universe of player prop bets at the largest sportsbooks and pairs those props with relevant data including historic hit rates, team-level matchup data, implied probabilities, injury news, and more. Log in now to check it out.
Jason Tatum - 3PT Player Prop Analysis in OutlierFor years, people in the fantasy sports space have been trying to figure out how to better capitalize on their deep player-based knowledge. Betting player props makes that possible.ps.
If you're someone who plays fantasy sports, then you can start using your research to capitalize on player props. If you have a player prop research routine' tools you check, outlets you consult, beat writers you follow'then double down on that routine and search for player props relevant to that attained knowledge.
Some of the major sports data websites and Outlier (of course) offer easy-to-comprehend player split data, which can help you unearth strategic betting opportunities. Not only can you easily find how players are performing on the season and for their careers, but you can see recent trends, how those players perform at home versus on the road, on certain types of rest, without certain players, and so much more.
A very simple example might be Minnesota Timberwolves young star Anthony Edwards' performance during the -22 NBA season. Take a look at his home-away splits from that season:
PPG FG% 3PT 3PT FG% FT FT% Home 18.7 41.3% 2.6 32.7% 2.5 74.1% Away 23.6 46.4% 3.3 38.2% 3.5 81.7%What we can glean from this data is that when Edwards was on the road, he not only scored more baskets, but was more efficient with his shooting, free throws, and three-pointers. If you're checking his player props and see that the sportsbooks are not adjusting for this, this might just be the edge you were looking for.
Twitter and Discord are two of the top spots for public discussion and speculation surrounding player prop research. Nothing is an adequate substitute for doing your own research, but tuning into and participating in conversations about player props with other seasoned sports bettors should help you get oriented and trigger some thoughts about what props to research further.
On Twitter, follow influential accounts to curate your feed. This is an easy way to stay apprised of the latest news like personnel moves, injuries, trades, mispriced lines, sharp opinions, and more.
On Discord consider joining a server where you can follow along or participate in conversations about interesting props. Try sharing your slate of props to get feedback from other smart bettors.
Today's key #NBA injuries
Myles Turner ' IND (-2.5)
Joel Embiid ' PHI (-2.5)
Christian Wood ' DAL (+6)
Aaron Gordon ' DEN (-6)
CJ McCollum ' NOP (+3.5)
LeBron James ' LAL (-3.5)Season Record 127-115-8#NBATwitter
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' Paul Rami '' (@ThePaulRami) February 15,
The biggest news always gets the headline, but thinking about the ripple effect is where you'll find the most betting value. For example, if LeBron James was originally questionable but is now going to miss tonight's game, the first place most bettors will look is at the moneyline, point spread, or total. However, the collateral impact of LeBron's absence is that other players on the team will have a greater opportunity to score, collect more rebounds, and generate more stats.
Another simple example is a pitching change. If a team's ace was slated to pitch but is now getting an extra day of rest while a lesser hurler takes to the mound, the opposing team's batting lineup has a better opportunity to exceed expectations. You might want to check out the opposing team's hits, RBIs, and bases props.
Look beyond the obvious. There's value to be had if you can accurately game out the collateral impacts of breaking news.
There is not one uniform set of rules for player props, so make sure you're familiar with the rules of the sportsbook you're betting on before you place your bets. For example, if you bet on a player to score a goal in a soccer match, one sportsbook might require that the player start the game for the bet to be booked, while another might only require that the player see the pitch at some point during the match.
You'll want to double-check the rules and know the nuances from sportsbook to sportsbook so that you can adapt your strategy for each. If the book you're betting on stipulates that a player must start, you'll want to wait to place your bet closer to tipoff. However, if your betting an under and the player only has to be active, then it benefits you to place your bet early.
While it can be tiresome to shop odds for individual bets, it's critically important to your profitability over time. Let's use this LeBron points prop as an example:
It can be tiresome but it's important to do as getting the best price directly impacts your bottom line. Take a look at this small difference:
At first glance, the payout between the two lines appears negligible' just 50 cents. But, that's actually close to 4%. In the long run, 4% makes a big difference. Consider that to be a profitable sports bettor, you need to be beating the sportsbooks roughly 54% percent of the time. If you consistently fail to line shop, you might be inadvertently increasing the barrier to profitability by another 4%. So take the time and go find the best price for your props.
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Like any other sports betting product, derivative or strategy, player prop betting comes with it's own set of learning curves. The best part about betting player props is that you have so many more opportunities to learn in any given day or event.
Now that you have a better understanding about why and how to bet player props, get out there and win some bets.
Benefits
Risks
If they feel like diving into the numbers, customers have more information, stats, and numbers at their disposable than ever before. The spread, money line and totals markets have and still are the most popular selections at sportsbook operators across the United States, which is constantly growing with its legalization, and there are no signs that those will be the most wagered on markets in the future.
But prop markets have carved out a growing niche that has created many alternate ways to wager on a game compared to the traditional markets presented before customers.
Remember! Sportsmemo offers predictions on TONS of player props in our free picks and premium expert betting predictions sections all year long.
Because the money line, spread and totals are the most popular and wagered on markets, there are less data points in the prop bet markets. The less data points available for a market, the easier it is to find value or an inefficiency across different sportsbook operators.
When comparing across sportsbook operators for props, there is a good chance the props odds or vig will be slightly different.
For example, Giannis Antetokounmpo is playing against the Brooklyn Nets. These are three options for Antetokounmpo's point prop across three different sportsbooks.
Sportsbook Total Points Odds DraftKings Sportsbook Over 29.5 -135 FanDuel Sportsbook Over 29.5 -114 Caesars Sportsbook Over 29.5 -123Just a little bit of research shows that if a customer was interested in taking Antetokounmpo's over point total, they should go to FanDuel Sportsbook as the number is the same at all three sportsbooks, but the customer must risk the least amount ($114 to win $100) compared to the other two sportsbooks.
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Sometimes it's less about what teams are good at, and more about exploiting weaknesses in prop betting. For example, if MVP candidate Joel Embiid on the Philadelphia 76ers is going against a lowly Detroit Pistons team who rank 25th in the NBA in rebounding and have an injury to one of their starting centers, Embiid props for that night are going to be a favorable play depending how high the number is.
Knowing what players and teams are good at is easier to keep track in comparison to keeping track of what the lesser quality teams in a respective league struggle with. Matching up a player's strengths against another team's weakness can create a window of opportunity in the props markets.
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Tyus Jones is the backup point guard for the Memphis Grizzlies, frequently spelling Ja Morant during most regular season games. The sportsbook operators have many more data points on Morant starting and playing his usual 35 minutes a game and Jones subbing in for his 20 minutes a game.
If Morant is taking a night off to rest a slight injury on a road trip or is taking a general rest day, sportsbook operators have less data points on what Jones can do in a full 35 minutes of action on the court.
Of course, there are experiences and nights to draw from, but there is less data on that situation which allows for the lines to be not as concrete compared to a player who is cemented as a starter with major minutes.
If a customer is feeling optimistic about how a specific team will perform in an upcoming game, combining multiple props from the same game to create a same game parlay can create a boost in payout.
For instance, if a customer thinks the Los Angeles Lakers are going to be able dominate the San Antonio Spurs, instead of choosing the Lakers to win, one can create a Same Game Parlay that includes:
A wager that originally started around -300 with the Lakers to win can be whittled down to -175 with the likely strong performance from the Lakers against a lowly Spurs team. Read about advanced same game parlay strategies here
There are many prop listings that are somewhat on the 'lucky' side and are not entirely controlled by a player on the field or court. In a 10-game stretch from 1/12/23 ' 1/31/23, James recorded seven blocks. In five of those 10 games, James did not record a block.
For lack of a better term, adding 'luckier' props like blocks and steals that are categorically more in the random territory is a good way to bust up a narrative-driven, stat-supported Same Game Parlay.
When having a prop list up on the screen customers want to think about what a player could or should do. How many three pointers will Stephen Curry make? How many passes will Aaron Rodgers complete?
Because of the naturally positive outlook on props when looking over them daily, there is value to be found in selecting under props. More value and line discrepancies for player prop can be found in the under selections across sportsbooks. Below are the Atlanta Hawks' Trae Young assists totals for a game against the Washington Wizards.
Sportsbook Total Assists Over (Odds) Total Assists Under (Odds) DraftKings Sportsbook Over 9.5 (-135) Under 9.5 (+105) FanDuel Sportsbook Over 10.5 (+114) Under 10.5 (-140) Caesars Sportsbook Over 9.5 (-137) Under 9.5 (+100)It is easy to avoid FanDuel's projection on Young's assists numbers for that night compared to the other two sportsbooks. Finding these discrepancies will help create a long-term successful plan when toiling in prop markets.
Remember! Sportsmemo offers predictions on TONS of player props in our free picks and premium expert betting predictions sections all year long.
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